March 2026

In 2002, New Zealand declared a state of emergency for just four days across the entire year. In the first two months of 2026 alone, the country has spent more than 70 days under emergency declarations — a figure that exceeds 21 of the past 24 years on record. The storms keep coming, and the data tells a story that is impossible to ignore.

By the numbers:

• 2002 (full year): 4 emergency days declared
• 2025 (full year): 8 emergency declarations
• Jan–Feb 2026 (2 months): 70+ emergency days declared

Sources: NEMA, RNZ, 1News / Civil Defence data

Three Storms in Four Weeks

Between mid-January and late February 2026, three major weather systems — each drawing tropical moisture southward into New Zealand — struck in rapid succession. Communities barely had time to recover before the next event arrived.

Storm 1: Tropical Disturbance 05F — January 2026

The crisis began on 15 January, when the remnants of Tropical Disturbance 05F — previously tracked as Tropical Low 14U in the Australian region — swept across the upper North Island. The system brought record rainfall, triggered devastating landslides, and caused widespread flooding.

States of emergency were declared across five regions: Whangārei District, Thames-Coromandel District, Hauraki District, Bay of Plenty Region, and Tairāwhiti Region between 20 and 21 January. Emergency Minister Mark Mitchell described parts of the east coast as looking "like a war zone."

The human toll was devastating. Nine people lost their lives. Six were killed when a landslide struck a Mount Maunganui campsite in the early hours of 22 January. Among the victims were 50-year-old Lisa Anne Maclennan from Morrinsville, who had woken fellow campers to warn them of the danger after a smaller slip hit her campervan; 20-year-old Swedish traveller Måns Loke Bernhardsson; friends Jacqualine Wheeler and Susan Knowles, both 71; and teenagers Sharon Maccanico and Max Furse-Kee, both 15. Two more people died in a separate landslide at a Pāpāmoa home, and another man was killed when his vehicle was swept away near Warkworth while attempting to cross the swollen Mahurangi River.

Both Tauranga and Whitianga recorded their wettest days since observations began. Tauranga received 295mm of rain in just 30 hours. Helicopters evacuated families from rooftops, the Royal New Zealand Air Force rescued 35 people from an East Coast campsite, and 40 people were evacuated from the Waioweka Gorge overnight. More than 18,000 lightning strikes were recorded in a single 19-hour period on 15 January.

On 27 January, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced a NZ$2.2 million relief package for flood-hit regions, including $1.2 million to mayoral relief funds and $1 million to marae that had provided welfare support.

Storm 2: Central North Island Flooding — February 2026

Heavy rain and flooding spread across the central North Island in mid-February. States of emergency were declared for Ōtorohanga District, Waipā District, and the Manawatū-Whanganui Region. Local declarations for Tararua, Rangitīkei, and Manawatū Districts were later absorbed into the region-wide declaration at 6:37pm on Sunday 16 February.

One person was killed when his ute was submerged in floodwaters on State Highway 39 between Pirongia and Ōtorohanga on Friday evening.

Local residents described scenes of destruction. Farmland and homes were inundated, with residents in Ōtorohanga watching floodwaters rise rapidly around their properties. The Ōtorohanga Primary School was flooded, and infrastructure damage was extensive across the Waikato region.

Storm 3: Late February — Red Warnings and Five Simultaneous Emergencies

Before communities could recover, further severe weather arrived in late February. MetService issued its highest-level red warnings — indicating a direct threat to life — for Manawatu, Rangitikei, and Ruapehu Districts. The heightened warnings meant dangerous river conditions, significant flooding and slips, isolated communities, and impassable roads were expected.

At the peak, five districts were simultaneously under states of emergency — Manawatū, Rangitīkei, Tararua, Waipā, and Ōtorohanga — a situation virtually without precedent. The storm's effects extended to Wellington, where winds exceeding 130 km/h shut down the entire metro rail network on Monday morning. KiwiRail cancelled all morning trains after a passenger train collided with a downed tree. The Hutt City Council warned residents in Lower Hutt suburbs including Waiwhetū, Moera, Gracefield, and Seaview to evacuate immediately if they saw rising floodwater.

Banks Peninsula on the South Island also faced heavy rain warnings, demonstrating the storm's extraordinary geographic reach.

Understanding Emergency Declarations

A state of emergency is a formal legal mechanism under New Zealand's Civil Defence Emergency Management framework. Once declared, it grants officials extraordinary powers to respond to a crisis — including the ability to close roads, evacuate residents, requisition equipment, and enter premises to rescue people. Declarations last up to seven days and can be extended.

Jon Mitchell, a capability development manager at the Joint Centre for Disaster Research with 30 years of emergency management experience, told RNZ's The Detail podcast that the bar for declaring is intentionally low: the test is simply whether an incident "threatens the safety of individuals or property."

Mitchell attributes the spike in declarations partly to climate change, but also to improved forecasting and a cultural shift toward early, preemptive declarations. Waiting until events occur, he argues, means losing much of the benefit that emergency powers provide. He also pushes back on the idea that frequent declarations cause "emergency fatigue," noting that research shows communities tire far more quickly when left without organised support.

New Zealand has seen only three national states of emergency in its history: the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, the Covid-19 pandemic, and Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023. The 2026 events have so far been managed through local and regional declarations — but the sheer volume and overlap is testing the system.

The Climate Connection

These storms are not random misfortune. Scientists at NIWA attribute the intensification to a warmer atmosphere driven by climate change. The physics is straightforward: a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture — roughly 7% more water vapour for every 1°C of warming. When storms develop, they have more fuel available, producing heavier rainfall and stronger winds.

The pattern seen in early 2026 — multiple tropical-origin storm systems funnelling moisture into New Zealand in rapid succession — reflects several converging factors. Many of the systems originated in the tropics, subtropics, or the north Tasman Sea before drifting south. When these warm, moisture-laden air masses interact with cooler air from the south or encounter New Zealand's rugged topography, conditions become ripe for extreme rainfall. A positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which has dominated this summer, has allowed subtropical storms more room to drift south and linger near the North Island.

Event-attribution studies in New Zealand have shown climate change can increase total rainfall from intense storms by 10–20%, but for the most extreme downpours — short, violent bursts that cause the greatest damage — rainfall intensities can increase by as much as 30%.

The comparison with Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 is instructive. That single event caused more than NZ$230 million in damage, destroyed over 100 bridges in Hawke's Bay alone, and reduced national wine production by 6%. The 2026 season has already brought three major events in roughly four weeks, with the full economic toll yet to be calculated.

What This Means for New Zealand

The human cost of this storm season has been immense: at least ten lives lost, homes destroyed, farmland inundated, infrastructure damaged, and entire communities isolated. Key wine-producing regions including Gisborne and Hawke's Bay on the North Island's east coast have been in the impact zone, though initial assessments suggest vineyard damage from the January storm was somewhat limited because the heaviest rain fell in non-producing areas like Bay of Plenty and Coromandel.

But beyond the immediate damage, the 2026 season raises urgent questions. When multiple districts are simultaneously in states of emergency, resources are stretched thin and recovery from one event is interrupted by the next. MetService meteorologists, working from their Wellington headquarters surrounded by monitors showing real-time radar, satellite imagery, and data from over 200 weather stations, are already watching a developing system in the Coral Sea — a reminder that the season is not over.

The message from the data is unambiguous: severe weather in New Zealand is no longer an occasional disruption. It is becoming a persistent, intensifying challenge. As Mitchell told The Detail: communities need to be ready to move, with a plan for where to go and an emergency kit prepared. The question is no longer whether the climate is changing, but how quickly New Zealand can adapt to a future where seasons like this may become the norm.

Sources: National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) — Declared States of Emergency records; RNZ — "A state of emergency, again and again and again" (20 Feb 2026); 1News — "Severe weather States of Emergency in 2026 already match last year" (16 Feb 2026); 1News — "NZ's sodden January explained" (28 Jan 2026); RNZ — "Wild weather warnings issued across NZ" (16 Feb 2026); The Drinks Business — "NZ in 'state of emergency' following record-breaking storm" (22 Jan 2026); Wikipedia — January 2026 New Zealand storms; Wikipedia — 2026 in New Zealand; NIWA climate attribution research; MetService severe weather warnings.